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How Political Risk Under Trump 2.0 Is Reshaping Investment Strategies for California Families and Estate Planners

If you’re a California resident managing assets, planning your estate, or protecting family wealth, understanding how political uncertainty affects your investments isn’t just academic—it’s essential to preserving what you’ve built. Recent developments in U.S. foreign policy and trade relations are creating unprecedented volatility that could impact your portfolio, estate values, and long-term financial security.

What California Families Need to Know About Current Political Risk

January 2026 marked a significant shift in how investors view U.S. assets. According to recent reporting from CNBC, heightened political risk has become the backdrop for U.S. stock markets following several destabilizing events:

  • U.S. military actions in Venezuela
  • Threats to annex Greenland with new tariffs on eight European allies
  • Naval deployments toward Iran amid military strike signals
  • 100% tariff threats on Canadian goods if trade deals with China proceed
  • These actions have strained relationships with key allies in the European Union, Britain, and Canada, creating what experts call a “massive source of uncertainty” for anyone holding U.S.-based assets.

    How Are International Markets Outperforming U.S. Investments?

    The numbers tell a compelling story for diversification. In January 2026 alone:

  • The S&P 500 gained just over 1%
  • Emerging markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) jumped approximately 8%
  • International developed markets (iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF) rose more than 4%
  • The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF added more than 5%
  • For California families with significant wealth in U.S. equities, this performance gap raises important questions about proper asset allocation and geographic diversification.

    Why Is the U.S. Dollar Weakening and What Does It Mean for Your Estate?

    The U.S. dollar dropped more than 1% in January and sits 11% below its 52-week high. This matters for estate planning because:

  • Foreign investors are increasingly hedging against dollar-denominated assets
  • Danish pension funds increased their hedges on U.S. dollar investments from 62% at the start of 2025 to 74% by April 2025
  • Traditional correlations between dollar strength and safe-haven status have broken down
  • If you’re planning to leave assets to heirs or considering international property, currency fluctuations can significantly affect the real value of your estate over time.

    What Investment Experts Are Recommending Now

    Stephen Kolano, Chief Investment Officer at Integrated Partners (managing approximately $24 billion), describes U.S. strategic policy as creating both actual and “mental risk premium” around trade routes and diplomacy. His firm expects this uncertainty to persist for at least the next three years.

    Meanwhile, investment strategists are pointing to specific alternatives:

  • European equities
  • Chinese markets
  • Japanese stocks
  • Emerging market diversification
  • Marko Papic of BCA Research suggests investors consider a “buy the rest of the world” trade rather than simply “selling America,” noting that even if the S&P 500 performs well, double-digit currency declines could erase gains for those holding only U.S. assets.

    How Will Political Risk Affect Estate Planning Through 2029 and Beyond?

    Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, believes geopolitical risk could remain elevated even after Trump’s second term ends in January 2029. For California estate planners, this means:

  • Long-term trusts should account for continued volatility
  • Asset diversification strategies need to extend beyond traditional U.S. holdings
  • Currency hedging may become a standard consideration for high-net-worth estates
  • Regular portfolio rebalancing is essential to protect generational wealth
  • The Federal Reserve Factor: What Kevin Warsh’s Nomination Means for Your Assets

    Questions about Federal Reserve independence add another layer of complexity. Kevin Warsh, nominated as the next Fed chair, would start his term in May if approved by the Senate. Markets initially responded positively, viewing Warsh as independent and committed to fighting inflation, causing gold and silver prices to plummet on the announcement.

    However, Matthew Aks of Evercore ISI warns that the Fed transition represents “another very serious vector” for concerns about U.S. political risk.

    Regional Differences: How Asian Allies View U.S. Assets Differently

    Not all international investors are reacting the same way. Large pension funds in Japan, given extensive security ties with the United States, may not embrace the “sell America” trade as readily as European counterparts. This suggests that political risk assessments depend heavily on:

  • Economic integration with the U.S.
  • Military alliance strength
  • Geographic proximity
  • Trade dependency levels
  • What This Means for California Probate and Estate Planning

    If you’re managing California-based assets or planning your estate, these developments create specific challenges:

  • Portfolio volatility: Increased uncertainty means more frequent valuation swings for estate assets
  • Tax planning complexity: Currency fluctuations and international investments add layers to tax strategy
  • Beneficiary protection: Trusts may need provisions for geographic and currency diversification
  • Liquidity concerns: Political risk can affect how quickly assets can be converted to cash during probate
  • For families who value transparency and want to protect what they’ve built across generations, working with experienced estate planning professionals who understand both legal structures and financial market dynamics has never been more important.

    Protect Your Family’s Wealth Despite Political Uncertainty

    At California Probate and Trust, PC, we help California residents navigate complex estate planning challenges while protecting family assets through market volatility and political uncertainty. Our Sacramento-based team offers:

  • Comprehensive estate plans that account for investment diversification needs
  • Trust structures designed to protect assets across changing market conditions
  • Probate guidance that minimizes costs and delays
  • Transparent, fixed-fee packages so you know exactly what to expect
  • We understand that political risk, market volatility, and family protection can feel overwhelming. That’s why we offer a free one-hour consultation to help you understand your options and create a plan tailored to your specific situation.

    Schedule Your Free Estate Planning Consultation Today

    Don’t let political uncertainty put your family’s financial security at risk. Contact California Probate and Trust, PC at (866)-674-1130 or visit cpt.law to schedule your complimentary consultation with our experienced estate planning attorneys.

    Legal Disclaimer

    This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources and represents general observations about market conditions and political developments. Individual circumstances vary significantly, and readers should not rely on this article as a substitute for professional legal or financial counsel. California Probate and Trust, PC does not provide investment advice or management services. All estate planning strategies should be developed in consultation with qualified legal and financial professionals who understand your specific situation. Past market performance does not guarantee future results. No attorney-client relationship is created by reading this article or visiting our website. For personalized legal guidance regarding your estate planning needs, please schedule a consultation with our firm.

    Source: CNBC – Political risk: How Trump 2.0 is affecting investment in U.S. assets